Jess Smee
BERLIN, Apr 28 2006 (IPS) – Silent playgrounds, boarded up schools, new old people s homes. What sounds far-fetched is actually a glimpse of the future for many German towns if the country s dwindling birth rate fails to stall.
Amid tabloid headlines like We are dying out! and dramatic press predictions that Germans will be extinct in 12 generations, Germany is waking up to the implications of the demographic downturn.
Germany has a birth rate of 8.5 per 1,000 inhabitants, the lowest in Europe and one of the weakest worldwide. With fewer babies, and people living longer, one in three Germans will be 60 or above by 2050, according to official projections.
A third more babies would be needed to maintain the German population as it is now, Bettina Sommer of the Federal Statistics Office told IPS. The demographic structure is undergoing a big change.
A shrinking population is a pan-European trend, according to Eurostat, the European Union s statistics organisation. By 2050, it estimates that Europe s population will fall by around 1.5 percent, or seven million people.
The figures released last month show Germany is hardest hit. In 2005 the number of children born was the lowest since the end of the second world war. Germany s 8.5 births per 1,000 inhabitants are far lower than Ireland with15.2, Britain with12, France with 12.7 and the Netherlands with 11.9.
Germany s birth rate has been flagging over the past 30 years, but policy changes have not managed to significantly stem the decline. Economists and demographers warn that failure to act soon will have serious consequences.
As the population gets older, fewer taxpayers will have to support an inflated pension system and the coveted welfare system. Meanwhile, the German economy will shrink further unless it can recruit 140,000 foreign workers every year, more than is currently the case, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) says.
Painting a bleak picture of the society of the future, the non-fiction book Minimum describes a society lacking families and awash with egocentric only-children. Frank Schirrmacher s book has topped bestseller lists for weeks, reflecting the wave of public concern.
Experts cite many reasons for Germans reluctance to reproduce. These include a scarcity of childcare facilities, schools that finish at lunchtime, and a tax system that discriminates against working women. Meanwhile, protracted university education means that many women study until they are 30, leaving little time to start both career and family.
Germany s traditional family model is a key factor, says Dr Michaela Kreyenfeld, who researches demographics at the independent Max Planck Society. The assumption is that the woman stays at home with the children. This has its roots in the conservative party but has continued to underpin policies by the subsequent left-wing (SPD) government, she told IPS.
Such stereotypes continue to weigh on political discussions she said, pointing out that many right-wing politicians morally object to laws encouraging nursery places for children under the age of three.
Other European countries have modernised their attitudes, especially France, where the crèche system is extensive. Unlike in Germany, it is not socially frowned upon that mothers promptly return to the workplace.
In Sweden, day care is aimed at creating equal chances for women in the workplace, whereas in Germany the politicians are driven by the falling birth rate, Kreyenfeld said.
Federal Minister for Family Affairs, Ursula von der Leyen, a doctor and mother of seven, is spearheading German efforts to become more family-friendly.
Among a raft of proposals to encourage more couples to have children she has mooted plans to allow parents to offset up to 4,000 euros of childcare costs each year. She has also drawn up a new form of state-funded child welfare support, whereby either parent will be entitled to 67 percent of their previous income while staying at home, up to a maximum of 1,800 euros per month.
But these measures must be discussed in parliament before any laws are passed, and there have already been fiery debates on the subject.
Meanwhile, politicians have to deal with stark differences in population patterns across the country. The fewest babies are born in the unemployment-blighted east of the country, where young people, especially women, are moving away to seek work. In contrast, the south, including key cities like Munich and Stuttgart, continues to flourish, according to a report the Berliner Institute published last month.
Researchers at the institute blamed a vicious circle that has become entrenched in much of eastern Germany following reunification in 1990. Where there s a lack of work, people, especially the young, move away. Where there s a lack of families, the economy weakens, they wrote.
Commentators argue that reform, especially to the increasingly costly pension system, is urgent. Public pension payments already take up 12 percent of gross domestic product more than in most other parts of the EU. And that is only going to rise.
As the average age of the electorate rises it will be politically unfeasible for parties to push through measures that tinker with the pensions status quo, even if it means building up more national debt.
Richard Jackson, director of the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies said in a report that this senior power means that politicians need to push through new laws, and soon.
The bottom line is stark, he wrote. Demography is pushing Germany towards a major crisis and time is running out.